Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by mid-2025 under favorable conditionsaccording to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report. The analysis highlights a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, driven by strong institutional inflows and the growing influence of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
ETFs dominate the Bitcoin market in 2024
Bitcoin Spot ETFs Have Become a Dominant Force in the BTC markets this year, with over 1.13 million BTC and fueling cumulative inflows of approximately $35.5 billion. This influx has not only provided price stability but also reflects the growing appetite for Bitcoin among institutional investors.
The Bitfinex report places the current market cycle at mid-phase, a position consistent with historical patterns following Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving.
The data indicates the The market is likely to peak around the third and fourth quarter of 2025. – approximately 450 days after the halving, a timeline that aligns with previous Bitcoin bull markets.
Price targets and metrics
The report projects minimum price targets $145,000 by mid-2025with a potential tranche of up to $200,000 under optimal market conditions.
Price models such as the Pi Cycle Top and the 4-year moving average suggest cycle highs between $145,000 and $189,000.
As of today, Bitcoin is currently trade to $106,368, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Metrics such as market value over realized value (MVRV), net unrealized gains and losses (NUPL), and the bull-bear market cycle indicator indicate that Bitcoin remains firmly in its bull phase. However, Bitfinex notes that the market is still far from the euphoric peaks seen in previous cycles, and that diminishing returns temper explosive gains.
Volatility and Halving Effects
While the overall outlook remains optimistic, the report warns of potential volatility, particularly in the first quarter of 2025. However, any correction is expected to be mild, supported by strong institutional demand and steady ETF inflows.
Historically, the post-halving years have produced Bitcoin’s most significant rallies. The April 2024 halving, which halved Bitcoin’s block reward, has already laid the foundation for the upward trajectory of this cycle.
Institutional demand and the future of BTC
“Institutional adoption and the growing importance of Bitcoin as a global asset are shaping this bull market,” the report notes. Spot accumulation, combined with Bitcoin’s emerging role as a store of value, suggests sustained price appreciation through 2025.
While volatility remains part of the Bitcoin landscape, Bitfinex believes institutional inflows will act as a stabilizing force, mitigating severe corrections and supporting new highs.
With ETFs consolidating their influence and institutional demand increasing, Bitcoin’s path to $200,000 remains a possibility, albeit tempered by volatility and diminishing returns.
Also Read: How to Avoid Risks When Applying for Crypto Loans
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