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Bitcoin crossed the level of $ 100,000 this week, reaching $ 104,000 before moderating around $ 103,000. The measure occurred after the news that US and Chinese officials would sit in Switzerland to talk about a possible commercial agreement. The markets responded quickly. Optimism returned, and Bitcoin increased accordingly. But analysts are seeing beyond the headlines. Global liquidity is the true story.
Global M2 reaches $ 111 billion
Julien Bittel, a Global Macro Investor macro researcher, believes that Global M2 Money Supply is a good main indicator of where Bitcoin is going. He presented a table that illustrates a 12 -week delay between the increase of M2 and the price of higher cryptography. Briefly, when M2 increases, Bitcoin is still about three months later.
Many of you have been asking for the global picture M2 vs. Updated Bitcoin. Well, here is …
And yes, the same story still tells:
We are going taller … pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign
– Julien Tiny, CFA (@bittjulien) May 9, 2025
Between the beginning of 2023 and early 2024, M2 Global increased from $ 98 billion to slightly more than $ 108 billion. Bitcoin arrived, finally breaking over $ 100,000. But in mid -2024, M2 ceased its ascent for a period.
Bitcoin also decreased, falling below $ 80,000 during that period. Bittel referred to that range as a consolidation phase. Today, M2 moves once again, tensely. It has spent $ 111 billion. If that trend continues, BTC could continue to rise in mid -2025.
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Bittel said: “We are going to rise,” pointing out the strong increase in global M2 as a sign.
Others think that Bitcoin is the best dog
Not everyone agrees with the Bittel timeline. The analyst Benjamin Cohen raised doubts about the idea that the cryptographic asset always is left behind the liquidity changes. He pointed out that Bitcoin reached its maximums in 2017 and 2021 before M2 reached its maximum point. That does not conform to the BTC’s leader theory of M2 for 12 weeks.
Cohen provided an alternative perspective. He believes that Bitcoin could very well lead, with changes in M2 that appear later. If that is the case, then the recent rise of the currency may warn us that global liquidity could decrease in the coming months.
And if #Bitcoin Does liquidity conduct, instead of delays?
Many people show this graph, where Global M2 compensates for 3-4 months and show that BTC follows.
The problem is that in 2021, this displacement shows that M2 increases for 6 months after BTC surpassed. pic.twitter.com/GPKBW9JBOG
– Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoaver) May 8, 2025
FTX’s collapse is still echoed
Cohen also referred to what happened in 2022, when Bitcoin fell hard. That fall coincided with M2 touching, but the fall persisted for a longer time due to the FTX debacle. He argued that Bitcoin’s price movements do not always adhere to the same time line as M2. Exchange failures such as experienced can interrupt the rhythm.
This perspective discovers another type of prognosis. If BTC is behind, instead of leading, then the current rally can indicate danger in the horizon, not resilience.
Outstanding image of Pexels, TrainingView graphics
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