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In a live interview in the CNBC Squawk box on Monday, Peter Chung, head of research of the quantitative trade firm Presto, reaffirmed its conviction that Bitcoin can reach $ 210,000 before the late 2025, arguing that the asset is evolving in a macro shelter of levels during moments of stress in the global financial system.
Bitcoin ready to go parabolic
“We have not changed our market perspective,” began in the first seconds of the interview. “Bitcoin’s target price remains $ 210,000, promoted by institutional adoption and global liquidity expansion.” He stressed that the same framework supports Ether’s valuation of Presto, and added: “For ETH, our objective price was based on the ETH-BTC relationship, which was 0.05. We still maintain that too, reflecting the efforts of the community to address the problem of value of value.”
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Chung backed the suggestions that the recoil earlier this year invalidates the model: “Agreement, not everything was the way we expected so far this year, especially the macro perspective and the reaction of the market, but in retrospect it was a healthy correction that has raided the way for the new classification of Bitcoin as a main asset.”
Within Presto, he said, the dominant task this month has been “trying to find out if something is broken in the market, whether confidence or some kind of global order, and how these assets are positioned in people’s portfolios.” Its conclusion: nothing systemic has fractured, leaving secular conductors intact.
The longest exchange occurred when the Anchors asked why gold emerged in April, while Bitcoin was initially delayed. Chung offered a granular taxonomy of Bitcoin’s behavior: “Bitcoin has two faces: digital gold and a risk asset. Most of the time Bitcoin behaves like a risk asset […]. But it is during a crisis that Bitcoin behaves like gold […]. These moments are rare. They happen only when the market has doubts about the stability of the financial system dominated by US dollars […] And that is what we saw in April. “
When asked to identify the most statistically significant contribution behind the figure of $ 210,000, Chung pointed out what he called “Global Liquidity Expansion”, a variable that I provide tracks through the trajectories of the balance sheet of the main central banks and large sovereign wealth funds. Although the growth of the money supply has slowed in the United States, it has accelerated again in China and, more recently, in the euro area, a pattern that Presto believes that it will be leaked in cryptography markets through cross -border flows.
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It also underlined the role of institutional flow data, which the company accredits for detecting the 2024 rally. “The proportion of block blocks above $ 10 million in future perpetual of Bitcoin,” he said outside the camera, “it is back above 7 percent of the total volume for the first time since November 2023”.
Why $ 210,000 is not ‘optimistic’
Although the round number attracts the headlines, Chung argued that $ 210,000 is conservative in relation to the historical adoption curves: “If you assign the Bitcoin network effect data on the Internet monetization route between 1994 and 2007, it reaches much above $ 210,000.
Even so, he admitted that the road is unlikely to be linear: “Our mission is not to be prophets of the exact week or month; our mission is to determine if something in the structural thesis: scarce, decentralization, adoption) has broken. Until now, nothing is broken.”
The anchors pressed him on what would force a downward review. Chung named two red lines: a lasting collapse in Real Global M2, which would strangle the venture capital and suppress the liquidity premium that pushes the highest scarce digital assets, and a fatal consensus error or governance failure within the Bitcoins network, an event that emphasized “has never happened in fifteen years”, but that any quantitative risk model must include.
In the absence of them, Presto sees the correction of April as a “cycle purge mid -cycle” that blushed the overheated leverage before the next stage. “Bitcoin is already trying to catch up,” said Chung, pointing out the rally of the minimums of mid -April. If that impulse drives the asset to the six -digit territory for the eve of the New Year, in their words, “it will depend on whether investors choose to set the price of geopolitical insurance now or after the next tremor.”
At the time of publication, BTC quoted at $ 94,983.
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