After such a historic race in the last two years, it was only a matter of time before the projections of a Bitcoin bearish market seized discussions on cryptocurrencies. Several experts have shared when they believe that the digital asset market will reach the top of its cycle and will probably witness a reversal.
While the crowd is still quite optimistic about the potential of several cryptocurrencies, the movement of the market in the opposite direction will not be a surprise. A popular cryptocurrency merchant on the social networks platform echoed a similar feeling, providing a possible time for the arrival of the cryptocurrency bearish market.
Why the bearish market could start in April
In a January 25 publication on platform X, the outstanding cryptographic analyst Ali Martinez shared His “unpopular opinion” about the current bitcoin upward cycle and his possible end. According to the expert, the bearish market could start in about three months.
The reasoning behind this projection is the historical performance of the price of Bitcoin in different reduction cycles in half. The reduction of half of Bitcoin, an event that occurs approximately every four years, reduces Bitcoin’s offer by reducing mining reward by half.
As seen in 2024, the most recent year of half reduction, the half -reduction event has historically been a precursor to substantial prices. However, the rebounds after the halving are usually followed by an important benefit collection, which leads to a market consolidation and a bearish market.
Source: Ali_charts/X
From a historical point of view, approximately 276 days after the reduction event in half have proven to be fundamental in the trajectory of the Bitcoin market. Specifically, the price of Bitcoin experienced significant growth after crossing the milestone of 276 days in the reduction cycle at half 2012-2016.
However, the BTC market witnessed a change in feeling and a serious market drop 367 days after the reduction by half, 91 days after the milestone of 276 days. If this historical pattern is maintained, investors could see the bearish market start at some point at the end of April.
At the time of writing this article, the price of BTC is located just below the brand of $ 105,000, which does not reflect any significant movement on the last day.
Is the retail interest increasing?
While historical price data is an effective way to analyze the trajectory of one cycle, chain data is another method that sheds light on cyclic movements in prices. One of this data is the retail interest in Bitcoin, which measures the demand of small investors in the main cryptocurrency.
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Normally, the demand for retail investors is usually correlated with the maximum euphoria phase. “If we observe the past cycles, the last two important peaks in the searches of “how to buy cryptocurrencies” occurred when BTC It was around $ 65,000 in May 2021 and $ 69,000 in November 2021, right at the top of the market. ” Martínez said in a separate publication in X.
Source: Ali_charts/X
As shown in the previous graph, the indicator of “interest over time” seems to be rebounded again in 2025. This could be a sign of an imminent stop for the cryptocurrency market.
The price of Bitcoin on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Istock’s prominent image, TrainingView graphics
